One-Day-Ahead Hourly Wind Power Forecasting Using Optimized Ensemble Prediction Methods

Skill forecasting from different wind power ensemble prediction methods

This paper presents an investigation on alternative approaches to the providing of uncertainty estimates associated to point predictions of wind generation. Focus is given to skill forecasts in the form of prediction risk indices, aiming at giving a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the d...

Wind Power Prediction by using Ensemble Models

We compare structural different methods of the artificial intelligence for wind power prediction modeling and build additionally ensembles of the models. As input variables for these prediction methods weather data of a numerical weather prediction model are used. The performance of the presented methods is compared to the predictions of the neural network based model.

One Day Ahead Stream Flow Forecasting

One-Day-Ahead Load Forecasting using nonlinear Kalman filtering algorithms

In this paper, we consider the problem of 24-hour ahead short-term load forecasting; the formulation is based on the nonlinear Kalman filtering. Our formulation takes into account weather conditions as well as previous trends. Effects of weather as well as prior consumptions are nonlinear functions; hence our choice. We compare our proposed method with the standard Kalman filtering approach and...

One Day Ahead Load Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Network

This paper presents short term load forecasting (STLF) in Java Island using recurrent neural network (RNN). The simple one of RNN is Elman, it has one hidden layer and suitable used in time series prediction. It can learn an input-output mapping which is nonlinear. The Elman RNN was proposed for one day a head forecasting, with interval time 30 minutes. Training model divided into weekday, week...